A major severe weather event is set to unfold today across a large portion of the center of the country. I’ve been debating about chasing today since last night. Why a debate? Storm speeds. Expected 50-60 mph in fact. Extremely difficult, even impossible to keep up with, even in best of terrain and road networks.
I am going to go out on a limb here with my forecast and downplay the widespread significant tornado threat forecast by the SPC and some NWS offices. From what I have read, they expect a great potential for long track, violent tornadoes. My gut feeling is screaming at me SQUALL LINE, which generally isn’t conducive to that type of tornadic activity. I hope for the sake of those living in the risk area, I am right.
Oh, I think there will be plenty of tornado reports, but I just don’t see the long track, long lived tornado potential, despite the huge amount of shear today. Generally speaking, those sorts of tornadoes come from deviant moving, discrete supercells. There could be some embedded supercells in the squall line, that may produce some, maybe even some violent, tornadoes, but I think they will be relatively short lived.
What I really expect to see is the dryline light up all the way down through Oklahoma nearly all at once. I think the shear is so significant, any storm will have an extremely difficult time to get rooted enough to turn right and slow down. I expect individual cells in the line to rapidly (50-60 mph!) move NNE , training within the line, and the line progressing eastward much more slowly.
I actually feel like the greatest threat today is widespread, straight line wind damage. There could be some very significant damage occur from this today in many locations, and may end up making the bulk of severe weather reports today.
All in all, don’t let my amateur forecast dissuade you from paying close attention to the weather situation for today, it’s a doosy, and demands a close eye. Any severe storms out there will be on you before you know it, heed the tornado warnings with immediate action.
As for me, most likely I will sit this one out. The cost of gas, and the fact I am sick of fast moving storms this year, really make it a deal breaker for chasing today. Watching storms fly by and getting a 5 minute view of them, isn’t really appealing.
I agree with the quick squall line evolution with about a 1-2 hour window at most of anything being a classic tornadic supercell before merging with other cells….lots of seeding downstream.
I do think that there is a great chance of discrete isolated tornadic supercells out ahead of the main line…my best guess is KS down to I-40 in OK of this heppening around the Huthinson, KS and I-35 corridor in OK. Those will be the real monsters in my opinion with the cyclic long-track tornado threat.
That’s my amateur forecast opinion anyway. How many 100mph+ straight-line wind reports do you think we’ll see today? I’d say quite a few.
I think you’re right David. We have seen a few forecast events like this over the past years and most (if not all) have ended up panning out into the scenario you describe in the blog here.
Well, you can sing from the hilltops, bud. You nailed it pretty much dead-on. Congrats!! Excellent forecast. Nicely done. 🙂
Thank you sir! Have to admit it feels pretty good to nail a big forecast on a difficult day like this was. God knows I bust plenty of them as well. heh You know as well as I do having chasing many years, there is something to be said for going with your gut feelings on most days. My bank account is thanking me for sitting this one out as well.
Just for reference purposes, SPC reports show 196 wind reports (9 of those high wind), and 34 tornado reports, none of which appear to have been major, long track tornadoes. In fact, there were no tornadoes reported in TX or OK, a few in KS, and the bulk of them were in and around the Omaha, NE area.
David,
Nailed it dead on! Great job.
Jim C
Nice call on the squall dude. I noticed the nice thin line of svr warnings up OK and laughed. Must feel good to call it, decide to stick to it and not waste the gas, and end up being right!!
-gb