Not much time for an in-depth forecast as I slept late (was exhausted from last night) and need to get out the door shortly.
Essentially, the same upper level system that produced yesterdays severe weather will be in play again today, though much closer, with much better effects on the weather. I am concentrating on the forecast on/near the Texas South Plains today, due to time and this is what concerns me and where I will be chasing. I did note the moderate risk up north the SPC has out, but I am ignoring that right now.
Low 60s dewpoints have been mainted across the southwestern South Plains and southeastern NM. Dryline should tighten up in eastern NM as the afternoon wears on. I don’t expect it to advance very far east, due to the quality of moisture ahead of it, and pressure falls to it’s west. For once we are NOT bone dry out here, quite the contrary actually after last night.
A couple of residual outflow boundaries from last nights convection will probably come in to play today, though they are difficult to discern on either satellite or radar images at this time. I’ll be keeping an eye out for evidence of those. (i.e. enhanced CU line, etc). A CU field is already developing in the area of interest, as the cloud debris from the earlier convection has cleared the area, and full sunshine is acting on the moisture with 2000-2500 CAPE already in place according to the SPC Mesoscale analysis model.
What is improved for severe weather today over yesterday, richer moisture, MUCH improved wind fields at all levels, things are generally just more potent.
I always have a mixed feeling of forecasts like this when they include my home area. Tornado potential is much improved today. I’ll be chasing for KCBD of course, so I no doubt have a busy evening ahead. I am going to try to get out the door within the hour, and head toward the Hobbs, NM area. The LIVE ChaseCam will be up and running as soon as I hit the road! We will probably see a tornado watch issued in the 3-5pm timeframe.