Moisture seems to be progressing north right on schedule but is combating strong daytime mixing of the atmosphere. Above is the current visible satellite image of this writing where I analyzed the important current surface features we are concerned with today. Dryline is taking shape across the western Permian Basin with the warm front noted by the leading edge of the 50F dewpoints mainly, draped out east toward Dallas/Ft. Worth.
A CU (cumulous clouds) field is developing in the narrow tongue of moisture moving in to west Texas right into the triple point as we would expect. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates CAPES from 500-1000 in this area now as well.
Expect storms might fire first up in the Texas Panhandle in the Amarillo area ahead of and along a strong cold front we will be having to deal with later tonight (undercutting storms and high winds to 55 mph behind it).
Shortly after those storms get going we should see our “warm sector” storms get fired off, possible here in the next 3 hours. Still expecting about the same, although as we get closer to dark, we could have a fairly high damaging wind potential to deal with as well.
Still staying put for a bit and monitoring…