This morning starts off with a bang. I must admit, more convection than I anticipated, but also more organized that I anticipated. The air across the area is already quite unstable and the first bit of energy now working on the area. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado watches already hoisted and a supercell just about 40 miles to my southeast. Any day I can wake up to this it has to be a good day for chasing!
Things should get progressively more potent as we get into the afternoon and especially early evening when the wind fields through the atmosphere increase in speeds and enhance the tornado threat.
Not much time to go in to a lot of details here, as we are trying to get some things out of the way and get out early. Graham will be chasing with me again today, so we will be able to have more blog updates.
The frontal boundary is near impossible for me to pick out this morning, but I get the impression it is just to my south, or about 50-75 miles north of where I analyzed it last night. Temps south of that already in the 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across the area, and even upper 60s across the rolling plains, where the better action will be later today. Dryline is out in eastern NM.
Quick look at visible satellite shows clearing in eastern NM and south of the western part of the front to the south and west of that current supercell. This bodes well for things to heat up and become more dramatically unstable.
SPC Mesoscale Analysis models already depicting surface based Capes in this area as high as 3500. We could see some 4500 if it gets hot enough. For the laymen, that is basically a measure of how unstable the air is. CAPE=Convective Available Potential Energy. Lifted Index already of -10 in this area as well.
My current thought is to watch the area from my location here (35 SW of Lubbock) and south for more initiation, and for that to strengthen as it moves further northeast. As the Lubbock NWS forecasters mentioned in an update forecast discussion this morning, close attention will need to be payed to any reminent boundaries that are hanging around the area for more storm initiation.
We’ll post again when we get on the road and have the LIVE ChaseCam active.
BTW, thanks to the LBB NWS folks for the great graphics!