I am kinda glad the cap held in my area and nothing came of today (Saturday) as I have had a MASSIVE sinus headache for about the last 30 hours or so and been laying in bed most of that time. I am finally warding it off, so I had to take a look and see how my forecast the other day for Sunday is fairing. Not to bad I would say.
Going off the last 12z GFS and the 0z NAM I am still liking the TX Panhandle/OK state line. No doubt there will be some action up further north in KS and possibly even NE, but given that I am not inclined to drive that far this time of year, and the fact I think it’s going to be a crapfest, I will concentrate my forecast on the area I will drive to and think has good potential. Essentially, western OK and North Central TX.
What I have noted is that the models now keep the initial surface low up in KS and are trying to develop a second one down in TX by 0z in the SE TX Panhandle. As you know from my previous forecast, the Childress area was one I was anticipating anyway.
While some of the were keeping a SW component to the 850 winds prior to Sunday evening, with the formation of this low pressure area, it backed them back to the south again from about I40 southward. This was a definite concern as the SW component to them would have mostly spelled out SQUALL LINE, this could delay the onset of that several hours. It may also keep the speedy nature of the storm down for a few hours. No doubt after midnight it will be one big mess on the radar however.
The 500 winds still seem to be right on target for this area as well.
And finally, looks like we may realize 60 degree dewpoints. Just checking the OK mesonet and metars from North Texas, widespread upper 50 dewpoints are already in place. Checking the Jayton, TX profiler, a 30-35 knot LL is already underway. The 12z ruc model shows that fetch coming all the way from the Yucatan Peninsula, so I think the moisture is good. The GFS seems to concur.
Bottom line is, I think the dryline will be a good play tomorrow along the TX Panhandle/OK border and maybe even further south. Childress, TX seems to be a good starting point right now. Easy to head north or south from there depending on how things evolve. I am going to be paying SPECIAL attention to see if that low pressure area near Childress develops. That could enhance all sorts of things, like backing surface winds and kinking the dryline increasing convergence. Cap should just be strong enough to hold things off until right at or just after peak heating, allowing the instablity to build. I noted the models indicating 1500 CAPE ahead of the dryline in this area, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 2000+ CAPE realized. Once the cold front comes on and slams in to the dryline, think the chasing will be all over at that point and we’ll get a big mess.
Overall, I can’t really complain this being October and all.
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