In what has already been a turbulent year with two decent sized tornado events in January, February is starting out with a bang with the year’s first High Risk!
Already two tornado watches are in effect from NE TX to southern MO and no doubt there will be many more before the day is over! I am a little pressed for time right now, so I will just post up SPCs public discussion for today, as I have had virtually no time to look at the forecast parameters.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY A STRONG LATE WINTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST THIS MORNING...AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXTREME WINDS ALOFT AND VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES AND CONTINUE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER AND TN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN END SPREADING UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY. EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LONGER-LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ADDED THREAT OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
Needless to say, something bad will probably come from this today.
