Looks like the first REAL chase opportunity for me this year today. Problem is, I am torn on a target. A robust warm front is currently lifting northward in to Oklahoma with dewpoints in the 60s in the warm sector and a dryline should take shape across western OK and western north Texas into the Edwards Plateau this afternoon.
While tornadoes along the triple point/warm front in NW OK or even southern KS (depending on where that warm front ends up late afternoon) I think are fairly likely, given the increased shear in that area, instabilities I’m afraid will be quite lacking that far north. Could this be a dud play?
Instability should increase the further south along the dryline you get down in to Texas, with higher temps expected and a little more into richer moisture. However also the further south you get, the further you get away from better shear.
So the questions in my mind this morning mainly, a) where might we get some clearing ahead of that dryline to help locally enhance the instablity? b) will there be enough instability in the northern target to overcome the increased shear? c) will there be enough shear in the southern target to produce tornadoes? Of course the huge fly in the ointment is the massive cloudcover over the warm sector today, i.e. pretty much all of OK and most of TX.
This is couple by the distance to target factor for me as well and the fact if I go with a northern target I need to get out the door ASAP. For this reason alone I am currently leaning to more southern targets somewhere from say Wichita Falls to Abilene to San Angelo. I could just sit home and watch it on radar, but it’s hard to ignore a dryline with 60+ temps ahead of it and adequate wind shear in March!
I’ll update as to plans as the day goes on. Unfortunately, I don’t expect to be live streaming video today as I still haven’t finalized the streaming solution just yet.
The best news is that the whole of Texas should see a fair bit of rain over the next 5-7 days, even if it is going to turn much cooler.
UPDATE: Went with the middle target. Currently in SW OK. Doing some beta live video streaming on TVN today.
