2009.white.christmas

The long range forecast from the National Weather Service in Lubbock, Texas!  Great work  Jordan!

IT IS THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS AND I AM BACK IN THE CHAIR
TO BRING YOU THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION WITH A BIT OF CHRISTMAS FLAIR.
THE MAIN STORM IS PAST AND WHAT SNOW WILL REMAIN ON THE GROUND
WILL DETERMINE HOW TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO REBOUND.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY ISN/T IN DOUBT.
ALL THESE CONDITIONS TOGETHER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
SO GOING ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

TEMPERATURES STAY COOL WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 IS WHAT I CAN SURMISE.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SUNDAY KEEPS WARM AIR AT BAY
BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON STARTING EARLY ON MONDAY.

A DEEPENING TROF IN THE WEST WILL CHANGE THE FLOW UPSTAIRS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE MONDAY IS WHAT THE NWP DECLARES.
RETURN FLOW TRIES TO SET UP AS THE TROF PUSHES EAST
AND I REMAIN UNSURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE GULF WILL RELEASE.

THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR BUT WITH A WEAKER APPROACHING TROF…
WILL IT REMAIN JUST AS WEAK OR WILL IT CUT OFF?
I HAVE MY DOUBTS BASED ON MODEL PERFORMANCES THIS LAST TIME
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT TO NICKLE AND DIME.

POPS REMAIN LOW FOR TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK…
AND I WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS MODELS REMAIN QUITE OBLIQUE.
SNOW COULD FALL EARLY THEN SWITCH TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN…
THE RIGHT FORECAST THIS FAR OUT REALLY IS QUITE A PAIN.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SLIDE IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
BUT THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTERWORDS…THEY JUST WON/T CONFORM.
THURSDAY THE TROF AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUT DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE WINDS ARE CAUSING ME GREAT PAINS.

NORTHERLY IN THE EURO BUT WESTERLY IN THE OTHER TWO…
GFS AND CANADIAN FAVOR WARMER SO I WILL WAIT AND REVIEW.
ANOTHER STRONG TROF THURSDAY THE EURO IS STARTING TO MAKE…
FAVORING COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH HOPEFULLY ISN/T A MISTAKE.

THE LAST THE DAYS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT COOL AND DRY
TO SEE HOW THE MODELS CHANGE…FLIP-FLOP…AND TRY TO COMPLY.

LITTLE SLEEP I HAVE HAD AS SHOWN BY MY RED EYES…
SO IF I HAVE LEFT SOMETHING OUT I DO APOLOGIZE.
WE STRIVE TO DO OUR BEST IN ALL THAT WE DO
EVEN THOUGH THE SCHEDULE IS STRANGE AND OUR SLEEP IS ASKEW.

FORECASTING IS FUN FOR MY FELLOW FORECASTERS AND I…
THE SHIFT WORK IS HARD WHICH I CANNOT DENY.
BUT WE ARE HERE TO SERVE YOU AND WILL CLOSE OUT AS I CITE
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS LUBBOCK AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!

JORDAN

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