After taking a bit of a break from things, it’s time to get back in the groove of things!
The dryline FINALLY returns to west Texas with a chance of not only some very much needed rainfall, but some rather significant severe weather.
I’ve been watching this day approach in the forecast models all week, and while they have been back and forth with things over the course of this entire week (the week for me being the previous 7 day period), one thing has been consistent, and that has been the development of convention over West Texas on Wednesday.
Right now model solutions show plenty of wind shear, instability and moisture with a bit of a jet overhead to help vent the storms out once they get going.
The one factor that could complicate things is that the models have also been consistently showing some convection overnight on Tuesday which could potentially serve to mess things up for Wednesday.
A frontal boundary will be in the area, and my gut feeling is that if there is any convection overnight Tuesday it will be north of the boundary, which is ok, because we will be keeping an eye on areas south of that boundary. I do NOT think we are going to have the issues we had last week, with the saturation and fog we had to deal with. This should be a much more spring like event.
The one thing that overnight convection could potentially do to help us out would be to lay down some outflow boundaries in the area. A good east-west outflow boundary intersecting the dryline could really enhance storm rotation and tornado potential.
I’ll post more on this as we get closer to the event. I of course will be out chasing this as it is in my backyard, and I will be chasing for KCBD as well. I’ll have the LIVE ChaseCam up and running for you guys as well!
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