04/03/08 Storm Chase Forecast

Excellent chase day across a broad area of Texas and parts of southern Oklahoma. Appears that a significant severe weather outbreak is on tap, particularly within about 100 miles or so either side of the Red River from Childress all the way to Arkansas.

A cold front will be near or just north of that region with a triple point somewhere near or just south of Childress, TX and associated trailing dryline from there down to just west of San Angelo and south. Supercells will also erupt south along that dryline, although not anywhere near as numerous as the Red River area.

So, with that said, my initial target will be Sweetwater, TX just west of Abilene along I20 with intentions of playing the more isolated stuff south of I20 that pops along the dryline. I would go a little far south, but I don’t want to screw myself out of potentially going a little bit north (maybe within 100 miles of I20) just in case, and will evaluate things as the day goes on. In other words, Sweetwater is not a hard target.

My concerns with playing the triple point and points east are:

A) having to deal with the big river and road options. It’s a squiggly thing and not all that many crossing points

B) numerous storms! after the other day, I would like to avoid that. Too many storms spoil things when it comes to getting big long lasting supercells

C) advancing cold front messing with the storms all evening.

D) Clouds in this region messing with instability. The area I am interested in is already clear and temps/dewpoints both in the mid 60s. This area will heat up nicely today and the atmosphere there will be VERY unstable.

Further south, while less storms, I feel there will be a few really honkin’ big supercells that will put on quiet a show. Road networks aren’t bad and we could potentially see some really BIG supercells down there today. I expect hail larger than baseballs, winds in excess of 75 mph and tornadoes, maybe even a strong one or two.  While the wind fields aren’t overall that impressive for tornado potential, when you get good, strong, isolated supercells like I expect down there they tend to modify their own environment and tornadoes are certainly possible with any supercell of this nature.

Anyone in any of these areas need to keep a sharp eye on the situation today through your local news or NOAA radio. I have a feeling there are going to be some newsworthy events today.

As I would like to be in Sweetwater by 3pm, I’ll be heading out here soon to my chase partners house, and we will try to hit the road by noon. I’ll post an update then and get the LIVE ChaseCAM rolling!