{"id":698,"date":"2009-05-05T12:40:51","date_gmt":"2009-05-05T17:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/?p=698"},"modified":"2009-05-05T12:42:25","modified_gmt":"2009-05-05T17:42:25","slug":"050509-chase-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/050509-chase-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"05\/05\/09 Chase Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/050509forecast.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-699\" title=\"050509forecast\" src=\"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/050509forecast.jpg\" alt=\"050509forecast\" width=\"613\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/050509forecast.jpg 1214w, http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/050509forecast-300x221.jpg 300w, http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/050509forecast-1024x756.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 613px) 100vw, 613px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I am intentionally ignoring the majority of the SPC forecast and going out on a limb today.\u00a0 SPC has forecast a moderate risk with a pretty decent risk for tornadoes along the Red River, where a warm front is expected to reside by this evening.\u00a0 No doubt there will be some severe weather there this evening.\u00a0 My concern is it being a mess, and if there are supercells them being embedded in said mess.\u00a0 I&#8217;m also not entirely convinced that the warm front is getting that far north.\u00a0 The entire area north of I20 is socked in by clouds even here just after noon.<\/p>\n<p>Instead I am concentrating on an area I have had my eye on for a couple of days, and that would be the area in Texas from about Post to Sweetwater to Abilene to Aspermont.\u00a0 A small dryline bulge has been consistently depicted by the models today and now looks like that will occur in that area.\u00a0 It&#8217;s already piling up a lot of favorable parameters in the southern edge of that target, and clearing on the southern edge which should set up a nice baroclinic zone as well.\u00a0 I even see a cumulus field on satellite developing in the clearing.<\/p>\n<p>The strength of the cap is the big holdback, but at this time I feel like it will break.\u00a0 In fact forecast models are breaking out a lone storm in that area this afternoon.\u00a0 I will be gearing up and heading out for Snyder here shortly, and adjust as needed from there.\u00a0 As always, I will be streaming the chase LIVE, right here on this website!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/live-chasecam.html\">http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/live-chasecam.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I am intentionally ignoring the majority of the SPC forecast and going out on a limb today.\u00a0 SPC has forecast a moderate risk with a pretty decent risk for tornadoes along the Red River, where a warm front is expected to reside by this evening.\u00a0 No doubt there will be some severe weather there this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10],"tags":[58,168,21],"class_list":["post-698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-extreme-weather","category-storm-chasing","tag-forecast","tag-storm-chasing","tag-texas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=698"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/daviddrummond.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}