I’m not very optimistic about severe weather, particularly tornado chances (SPC has a 5% risk area outlined), especially since current dewpoints are still mostly in the upper 40s in the Permian Basin. There does appear to be a tongue of elevated moisture at 850mb advecting into the Midland/Odessa area and toward Hobbs, NM. This is expected to mix down somewhat as the day/evening goes on.
Right now, I’m only expecting some late, elevated, marginally severe storms across the area. However, freezing levels suggest they could be some pretty efficient hail producers, and wind profiles suggest any strong storms should rotate, which should increase the hail size, and of course with rotating storms there is always that chance of a tornado (even if in this case it’s remote).
So, I’ll be heading out for Seminole, Texas shortly, adjust from there as needed. I think at the very least I will finally get an decent opportunity for some lightning photography tonight I hope. Rain is a good bed across much of the area, which is VERY much needed as you have heard me talk about before.
I’m not liking the forecast radar reflectivity models for further east in Texas tomorrow, so I may forego that day. I’ll evaluate that later tonight. Right now it looks like a huge grunge chase with maybe a few embedded severe storms. Of course a lot of that depends on how things evolve tonight.
I’ll be live streaming today. However, if I am in the Lubbock CWA, you may not be able to see it. I will have to stream for the TV station and I haven’t quite got all the red tape worked out so they can use the TVN feeds, so I am streaming on a backup for them. I’d give you guys the URL, but that server can only handle a handful of viewers to the stream. 😉
