Very potent severe weather day is shaping up for the Texas Panhandle and South Plains area with the possibility of tornadoes and hail to the size of softballs!
Morning surface analysis shows dewpoints in the upper 50s across the area, which is more that sufficient moisture in the higher terrain of West Texas up on the caprock to get good storms going and forecast models show this increasing into the 60s by late today.
A dryline should tighten up near the Texas/New Mexico state line by afternoon and provide a focus for storms to initiate. Additionally, some old outflow boundaries from previous convection could also provide a focus, especially anywhere those intersect the dryline.
Wind profiles should increase favorably for supercell development as the day wears on. RUC forecast model shows more than sufficient instability for tall, strong storms of the type to produce very large hail, and the low level EHI (Energy Helicity Index) has a nice bullseye just west of Lubbock by 22z. Any supercells today that interact with any of these boundaries will certainly be capable of producing tornadoes, maybe even a strong one.
From a storm chasing perspective, at least the storm motions will be relatively slow so they should be easy to keep up with.
People living in the area should have your weather radios on today, and tune in to KCBD 11 for up to the minute information if you are on the South Plains in the Lubbock viewing area.
I will be out in the field by early afternoon streaming live on the LIVE ChaseCam page! Be safe today everyone!
