In The Vortex

Tag: texas

  • 02/10/09 Severe Weather for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

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    A powerful storm system is emerging out on to the plains that will no doubt bring severe weather for a good part of the eastern southern plains and points east.

    Unseasonably high dewpoints are ramping up across Texas in advance of this system, and there are ample dynamics to generate a good deal of severe weather.  The Storm Predicition center has already outlooked a good portion of the area in a Slight Risk with an area centered around southeast OK in a Moderate Risk.  This will no doubt change by tomorrow.

    This of course has many storm chasers who are anxious to see some good storms doing their best to pull tornadoes out of this.  Frankly, I am just not seeing the huge tornado potential.  Sure, there is ample shear, but any time I see winds at 850mb with any southwest component to them this early in the year I immediately think squall line.

    Will there be tornadoes?  Possibly.  It’s possible that a storm or two might remain discrete long enough to produce, but even if it does it’s going to be hauling donkey.  My gut feeling says it’s highly unlikely, and there will be a quick evoluton to a powerful squall line.

    I feel more likely the cause for severe weather on Tuesday will widespread severe wind reports/damage, with some hail thrown in the mix.  I expect there might be a few significant straight line wind episodes in the line that might get initially tagged with a tornado report because of damage, as often happens with strong squall lines.

    That’s my gut feeling on the setup.  As such, considering the distance and time of year as well, I have no plans to chase right now.  I most definitely will give it a good look over in the morning and not 100% ruling out I might see something that intices me out the door.  But I don’t think it’s likely.

    Of course, there is always a chance I will bust this forecast. I guess we’ll know in about 24 hrs! 😉

  • Update on FedEx Plane Crash in Lubbock, TX Weather Related?

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    The NTSB has released their preliminary report of the FedEx plane crash I first told you about back on January 27th, 2008.

    What follows is the content of their report:

    NTSB Identification: CEN09MA142
    Nonscheduled 14 CFR Part 121: Air Carrier operation of Empire Airlines
    Accident occurred Tuesday, January 27, 2009 in Lubbock, TX
    Aircraft: AEROSPATIALE ALENIA ATR 42-320, registration: N902FX
    Injuries: 1 Serious, 1 Minor.

    This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

    On January 27, 2009, approximately 0437 central standard time, N902FX, an Aerospatiale Alenia ATR-42-320, operating as Empire Airlines flight 8284, sustained substantial damage when it landed short of the runway threshold while executing the Instrument Landing System (ILS) RWY 17R approach at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport (LBB), Lubbock, Texas. The airplane was registered to Federal Express Corporation, Memphis, Tennessee, and operated by Empire Airlines, Hayden, Idaho. The airline transport pilot rated captain was seriously injured and the commercial rated first officer sustained minor injuries. An instrument flight rules flight plan was filed for the flight that departed Fort Worth Alliance Airport (AFW), Fort Worth, Texas, approximately 0319. Night instrument meteorological conditions prevailed for the supplemental cargo flight operated under 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121.

    A preliminary review of air traffic control communications revealed that the captain contacted the Lubbock Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) at 0422, and reported that they were descending from an altitude of 10,000 feet down to 8,000 feet mean sea level (msl). A controller acknowledged the transmission and then provided the airport’s current weather information and a runway breaking-action advisory. In addition, he provided vectors for the ILS 17R approach.

    At 0430, the controller instructed the airplane to descend and maintain an altitude of 5,000 feet msl. At 0432, the controller informed the flight crew that the wind had shifted 180 degrees from the north to the south between 5,000 and 6,000 feet msl. The captain responded and added that he also noted a drop in the outside air temperature of 8 degrees and concurred with the controller’s observation regarding the wind shift. The controller cleared the airplane for the ILS approach at 0433 and instructed the flight crew to contact Lubbock Control Tower. The captain acknowledged.

    At 0434, the captain contacted the control tower and a controller cleared the airplane to land on runway 17R. The captain acknowledged the landing clearance and there were no further communications. Approximately three minutes later an airport maintenance employee contacted the tower and asked “what is that fire there at the end of the runway?” A controller responded, “it’s an airplane.” The controller had witnessed the accident and had activated the alarm for the airport rescue and fire fighting equipment to respond.

    An on-scene examination of the wreckage revealed that the airplane landed short of the runway threshold and collided with the approach lighting system before it skidded off the right side of the runway into the grass. The airplane came to rest on a westerly heading perpendicular to the runway. A post-impact fire consumed a large portion of the fuselage and the right wing.

    At 0415, the special weather report at LBB included wind from 350 degrees at 10 knots, visibility 2 miles, light freezing drizzle, mist, ceiling 500 feet overcast, temperature 46 degrees Fahrenheit, dew point 48 degrees Fahrenheit, and a barometric pressure setting of 30.02 inches of Mercury.