In The Vortex

Tag: severe weather

  • 02/10/09 Severe Weather for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

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    A powerful storm system is emerging out on to the plains that will no doubt bring severe weather for a good part of the eastern southern plains and points east.

    Unseasonably high dewpoints are ramping up across Texas in advance of this system, and there are ample dynamics to generate a good deal of severe weather.  The Storm Predicition center has already outlooked a good portion of the area in a Slight Risk with an area centered around southeast OK in a Moderate Risk.  This will no doubt change by tomorrow.

    This of course has many storm chasers who are anxious to see some good storms doing their best to pull tornadoes out of this.  Frankly, I am just not seeing the huge tornado potential.  Sure, there is ample shear, but any time I see winds at 850mb with any southwest component to them this early in the year I immediately think squall line.

    Will there be tornadoes?  Possibly.  It’s possible that a storm or two might remain discrete long enough to produce, but even if it does it’s going to be hauling donkey.  My gut feeling says it’s highly unlikely, and there will be a quick evoluton to a powerful squall line.

    I feel more likely the cause for severe weather on Tuesday will widespread severe wind reports/damage, with some hail thrown in the mix.  I expect there might be a few significant straight line wind episodes in the line that might get initially tagged with a tornado report because of damage, as often happens with strong squall lines.

    That’s my gut feeling on the setup.  As such, considering the distance and time of year as well, I have no plans to chase right now.  I most definitely will give it a good look over in the morning and not 100% ruling out I might see something that intices me out the door.  But I don’t think it’s likely.

    Of course, there is always a chance I will bust this forecast. I guess we’ll know in about 24 hrs! 😉

  • 02/08/09 Storm Chase Forecast

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    I have been putting off talking about this for a few days now, mostly because these early year system hardly ever pan out the way they look several days out.

    However, it appears that we will indeed see our first severe weather of 2009 across west Texas this evening.  For the first time in months, we have some meaningful moisture back in the area, with near to just about 50F dewpoints across the area.  While meager by May standards, this is a welcome relief for months of single digit and negative dewpoints.

    Give the time of year, the lower high temps, and the overall strength of this system, this will be sufficient to get storms going late this afternoon.  So for the first time really since about last September, most of the area will received a good rain tonight, maybe 1/2 inch in some cases.

    The Storm Prediction Center has also outlooked the area with a 2% tornado risk.  Mostly due to the ample shear with this system.  Expected mode today will be in the form of a squall line, and severe weather will probably be confined to wind events, possibly some marginal severe hail events.

    If we can maintain discreet cells long enough early on, there might be a brief window of opportunity for a quick tornado.  I would expect this mostly in areas getting a little sun, such as far southeast New Mexico is now.  Storms should form in eastern New Mexico and quickly march across Texas.

    Given that, my target right now for late afternoon is Hobbs, New Mexico.  I’m not expecting much, but being the first severe weather event for the area, most likely I will be out reporting for NewChannel 11, and I am hopeful for a chance after dark to shoot some lightning photography.

    At any rate, some good rain and a chance at lightning and thunder after a long, dry winter is enough to get me out the door!

    Could be an even better potential for severe weather and chasing in north central Texas on Tuesday, but more about that later.