In The Vortex

Tag: midland

  • 05/14/2010 Storm Chase Forecast

    I had no time to get a forecast posted yesterday as I had to get on the road. Initially targeted Wheeler County, TX for storm initiation but got tempted by the triple point up on the OK/KS border and incredible cape, and was concerned about the cloud debris inhibiting heating further south.   Short story was, I bailed from the outflow dominant storm at the KS border and caught the tail end charlie storm at Clinton, OK just in time to get the tornado in the video above crossing over I40.  When things finally settle down I will post more in-depth recaps of the better days.

    Today will take me to the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos region, one of my favorite chase areas because of the photops the terrain provides with the storms.  Warm front is hanging out down there and shear is sufficient for a couple of supercells and perhaps a tornado or two.  In fact, there is already a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for the area north of where I am going for the elevated hailers underway currently, north of the front.

    I will of course be streaming live this afternoon on the LIVE ChaseCam page.

  • 04/11/09 Chase Forecast

    041109forecast

    I’m not very optimistic about severe weather, particularly tornado chances (SPC has a 5% risk area outlined), especially since current dewpoints are still mostly in the upper 40s in the Permian Basin.  There does appear to be a tongue of elevated moisture at 850mb advecting into the Midland/Odessa area and toward Hobbs, NM.  This is expected to mix down somewhat as the day/evening goes on.

    Right now, I’m only expecting some late, elevated, marginally severe storms across the area.  However, freezing levels suggest they could be some pretty efficient hail producers, and wind profiles suggest any strong storms should rotate, which should increase the hail size, and of course with rotating storms there is always that chance of a tornado (even if in this case it’s remote).

    So, I’ll be heading out for Seminole, Texas shortly, adjust from there as needed.  I think at the very least I will finally get an decent opportunity for some lightning photography tonight I hope.  Rain is a good bed across much of the area, which is VERY much needed as you have heard me talk about before.

    I’m not liking the forecast radar reflectivity models for further east in Texas tomorrow, so I may forego that day.  I’ll evaluate that later tonight.  Right now it looks like a huge grunge chase with maybe a few embedded severe storms.  Of course a lot of that depends on how things evolve tonight.

    I’ll be live streaming today.  However, if I am in the Lubbock CWA, you may not be able to see it.  I will have to stream for the TV station and I haven’t quite got all the red tape worked out so they can use the TVN feeds, so I am streaming on a backup for them.  I’d give you guys the URL, but that server can only handle a handful of viewers to the stream. 😉