In The Vortex

Tag: hail

  • 04/11/09 Chase Forecast

    041109forecast

    I’m not very optimistic about severe weather, particularly tornado chances (SPC has a 5% risk area outlined), especially since current dewpoints are still mostly in the upper 40s in the Permian Basin.  There does appear to be a tongue of elevated moisture at 850mb advecting into the Midland/Odessa area and toward Hobbs, NM.  This is expected to mix down somewhat as the day/evening goes on.

    Right now, I’m only expecting some late, elevated, marginally severe storms across the area.  However, freezing levels suggest they could be some pretty efficient hail producers, and wind profiles suggest any strong storms should rotate, which should increase the hail size, and of course with rotating storms there is always that chance of a tornado (even if in this case it’s remote).

    So, I’ll be heading out for Seminole, Texas shortly, adjust from there as needed.  I think at the very least I will finally get an decent opportunity for some lightning photography tonight I hope.  Rain is a good bed across much of the area, which is VERY much needed as you have heard me talk about before.

    I’m not liking the forecast radar reflectivity models for further east in Texas tomorrow, so I may forego that day.  I’ll evaluate that later tonight.  Right now it looks like a huge grunge chase with maybe a few embedded severe storms.  Of course a lot of that depends on how things evolve tonight.

    I’ll be live streaming today.  However, if I am in the Lubbock CWA, you may not be able to see it.  I will have to stream for the TV station and I haven’t quite got all the red tape worked out so they can use the TVN feeds, so I am streaming on a backup for them.  I’d give you guys the URL, but that server can only handle a handful of viewers to the stream. 😉

  • 03/25-26/09 Chase Recap

    Wow, what a week!  After the chase on Wednesday and getting in late I didn’t even get a chance on Thursday morning to do a forecast post because we already had supercells ongoing at 10 AM!

    Didn’t end up with any big tornadoes on Wednesday. In fact I didn’t even see any, but had a great swirl overhead I thought might turn in to one.  Randy Denzer evidently got one a little early before I could get on the storm, since he was a little closer to get to it than I was.  Ended up with some great lightning and stuck in Austin rush hour traffic! UGGGHH!!

    Here is some video from Wednesday:

    Then as I said on Thursday it was up and out the door to intercept the storms now south of San Antonio.  Ended catching a supercell hybrid as it crossed I37.  Produced a brief tornado about I37 and Hwy 79.  Not photogenic by any means and actually quite poor from a photogenic standpoint.  However, rotation in the rain free base, dust swirl on the ground under it and resulting damage: roofs torn off as talked about by law enforcement radio; interstate sign supported by twin I-Beams bent over, and semi-truck overturned; as well as radar signature supports it being a tornado rather than a gustnado as I originally thought it might be.  This is a first for me as my first gulf coast area tornado.  Also the first for 2009!

    The hail core was much more interesting as it swallowed me up and pounded me with rain driven 1.25″ hail in a torrential downpour.  Ended up breaking out my driver side mirror, both the ventshades on my front windows, cracked the windshield, and busted some holes in my grill, as well as a few thousand more dents!

    Here is the video from Thursday:

    What a way to end up 5 days straight on the road chasing and nearly 3000 miles!

    Looks like the next chasing opportunity won’t be until around April 5th or so…