Category: Storm Chasing

I am kinda glad the cap held in my area and nothing came of today (Saturday) as I have had a MASSIVE sinus headache for about the last 30 hours or so and been laying in bed most of that time. I am finally warding it off, so I had to take a look and see how my forecast the other day for Sunday is fairing. Not to bad I would say.

Going off the last 12z GFS and the 0z NAM I am still liking the TX Panhandle/OK state line. No doubt there will be some action up further north in KS and possibly even NE, but given that I am not inclined to drive that far this time of year, and the fact I think it’s going to be a crapfest, I will concentrate my forecast on the area I will drive to and think has good potential. Essentially, western OK and North Central TX.

What I have noted is that the models now keep the initial surface low up in KS and are trying to develop a second one down in TX by 0z in the SE TX Panhandle. As you know from my previous forecast, the Childress area was one I was anticipating anyway.

While some of the were keeping a SW component to the 850 winds prior to Sunday evening, with the formation of this low pressure area, it backed them back to the south again from about I40 southward. This was a definite concern as the SW component to them would have mostly spelled out SQUALL LINE, this could delay the onset of that several hours. It may also keep the speedy nature of the storm down for a few hours. No doubt after midnight it will be one big mess on the radar however.

The 500 winds still seem to be right on target for this area as well.

And finally, looks like we may realize 60 degree dewpoints. Just checking the OK mesonet and metars from North Texas, widespread upper 50 dewpoints are already in place. Checking the Jayton, TX profiler, a 30-35 knot LL is already underway. The 12z ruc model shows that fetch coming all the way from the Yucatan Peninsula, so I think the moisture is good. The GFS seems to concur.

Bottom line is, I think the dryline will be a good play tomorrow along the TX Panhandle/OK border and maybe even further south. Childress, TX seems to be a good starting point right now. Easy to head north or south from there depending on how things evolve. I am going to be paying SPECIAL attention to see if that low pressure area near Childress develops. That could enhance all sorts of things, like backing surface winds and kinking the dryline increasing convergence. Cap should just be strong enough to hold things off until right at or just after peak heating, allowing the instablity to build. I noted the models indicating 1500 CAPE ahead of the dryline in this area, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 2000+ CAPE realized. Once the cold front comes on and slams in to the dryline, think the chasing will be all over at that point and we’ll get a big mess.

Overall, I can’t really complain this being October and all.

After the disgust in the total flop of severe weather potential last weekend, I have been more concentrating on getting some work done and trying to ignore the weather for a while. Until last night, I was outside taking a break and noticed one heck of a nice looking storm up north and had to go check radar. I was thoroughly disgusted. How did this happen, and more importantly, why the heck did I miss it? This was THREE counties away from me!

Seems the little “weak” shortwave that came over the area that was supposed to “maybe” produce some showers turned out to be a little more potent than forecast. Combine with some decent wind shear and this little puppy popped out. As far as I know, there were no tornadoes sighted, at least there are no reports. But don’t you just know that had one wicked rotating wall cloud under it. That TVS marker was present for a LONG time on that storm. To be honest, I am a bit surprised the NWS didn’t pull the trigger on a doppler indicated possible tornado with that storm. At any rate, it did get some 2.75 inch hail reported on it, and a patrol car got its windows blown out. No doubt would have been a sweet storm to chase!

So of course with all that excitement, and seeing some talk on StormTrack about this upcoming weekends potential, the call of the wild just got too strong for me and I had to take a look at some models. From what I have read, the models have been fairly consistent with one another about this scenario, although it might have slowed down a bit, making the better day Sunday instead of Saturday.

So hear we have some NICE winds out of the southwest at 500 millibars, or up in the mid levels for the average reader here, that are taking a good 60-65 knot shot at the eastern Texas panhandle. This is forecast for 18z which is 1 pm here on the southern plains. It gets even better 6 hours later!

This kicks it up just a notch aimed right at the areas from about Childress, TX down to Wichita Falls.

A little closer to the surface at 850 millibars we have a very nice low level jet (LLJ) streaming moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in to this area, helping prime the atmosphere.

The combination of these two wind fields should yield sufficient shear to get those storm updrafts rotating pretty good. It’s not an end of the world scenario, but it could make for some great chasing, especially here in OCTOBER!

All of this is complimented by a surface low pressure that is expected to be in SW KS early afternoon and move down in to the NE TX Panhandle my early evening, trailing a dryline south from it. Looks like we will see sufficient moisture across the area with dewpoints forecast in the low 60s ahead of the dryline and some hinting at a dryline bulge in the Childress area. Afternoon temps expected in the mid 80s. Right now models I believe are underforecasting the CAPES in this area, given the forecast temps and dewpoint, assuming they verify.

Probably getting a little to detailed now this far out really, but the setup looks darn good for some severe weather from about the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, down through the eastern Texas Panhandle and maybe as far south as Big Spring, TX and points east from there of course as the evening goes on.

I’ll do an updated forecast on this on Saturday. Everyone of course is welcome to input their take on the situation in the comments!