TODAY: INDIANA JONES and the SNAKES ON THE PLAINS
As I predicted two and a half months ago, today is a chase day!
Primarily Kansas (but possibly some of southern NE and western OK) will be under the gun today for a widespread outbreak of severe weather, including some possible strong, long lived tornadoes, courtesy of a huge trough of low pressure across the western U.S. and ample gulf moisture headed north on a 50 knot low level jet.
A warm front will be in play near the I70 corridor with a southward trailing dryline back to the extreme eastern TX Panhandle by late afternoon. Wind shear is fantastic and mid 60s dewpoints already in to central KS.
Storms should get going first near that triple point in extreme NW KS and the eventually later down the dryline. The cap is stronger the further south you go, so how many (if any) storms develop south of the KS border is the bigger question.
I however like down the dryline today better than the triple point. The primary reason is storms further north will be screaming N/NE and will quickly cross the warm front into much less favorable air to maintain supercell status, as the winds all the way up through the mid layers will be nearly out of the south, except right on the surface. No doubt some tornadoes will occur up there, I just feel it will be very frustrating chasing up there with a good deal of luck involved to catch one when it happens.
The further south you go down the dryline, the 500mb winds get a little more SW component to them, which is great, because it increases the directional shear and will help slow them down a tad more. (What’s with the Speedy Gonzales storms in late May? Give us a break already!) The cap will also insure a more isolated nature, and they won’t be crossing the frontal boundary, but rather will continue into ever better moisture. Storms further south can and will maintain supercell status for a long time, and this is where I expect we will see long track, possibly a few violent tornadoes.
With that in mind, my initial target is on the souther border in SW KS of Liberal, KS, with intent on adjusting east/northeast depending on dryline placement by the time I get there. Models have it further east, I am not so sure about that, but just in case, I need the option open.
Those reading this residing in the western half of KS, extreme NE TX Panhandle, and NW OK, need to pay close attention to how the weather evolves today.
I’ll be hitting the road in about an hour or so. The LIVE ChaseCam will be up and running this afternoon. I expect a long day today, and this is only the beginning. As it stands now, we will probably see multiple days of severe, chasable weather on the plains. I may not make it back home for a week. Got some new paws on the chase vehicle yesterday, so she’s ready to roll!