A major severe weather event is set to unfold today across a large portion of the center of the country. I’ve been debating about chasing today since last night. Why a debate? Storm speeds. Expected 50-60 mph in fact. Extremely difficult, even impossible to keep up with, even in best of terrain and road networks.
I am going to go out on a limb here with my forecast and downplay the widespread significant tornado threat forecast by the SPC and some NWS offices. From what I have read, they expect a great potential for long track, violent tornadoes. My gut feeling is screaming at me SQUALL LINE, which generally isn’t conducive to that type of tornadic activity. I hope for the sake of those living in the risk area, I am right.
Oh, I think there will be plenty of tornado reports, but I just don’t see the long track, long lived tornado potential, despite the huge amount of shear today. Generally speaking, those sorts of tornadoes come from deviant moving, discrete supercells. There could be some embedded supercells in the squall line, that may produce some, maybe even some violent, tornadoes, but I think they will be relatively short lived.
What I really expect to see is the dryline light up all the way down through Oklahoma nearly all at once. I think the shear is so significant, any storm will have an extremely difficult time to get rooted enough to turn right and slow down. I expect individual cells in the line to rapidly (50-60 mph!) move NNE , training within the line, and the line progressing eastward much more slowly.
I actually feel like the greatest threat today is widespread, straight line wind damage. There could be some very significant damage occur from this today in many locations, and may end up making the bulk of severe weather reports today.
All in all, don’t let my amateur forecast dissuade you from paying close attention to the weather situation for today, it’s a doosy, and demands a close eye. Any severe storms out there will be on you before you know it, heed the tornado warnings with immediate action.
As for me, most likely I will sit this one out. The cost of gas, and the fact I am sick of fast moving storms this year, really make it a deal breaker for chasing today. Watching storms fly by and getting a 5 minute view of them, isn’t really appealing.
