Looks like potential for a fairly significant episode of severe weather across the entire eastern half of Texas.
Thunderstorms/showers already ongoing at this hour in north and northwest Texas. This activity will probably mostly subside soon as the atmosphere gets worked over and cold pools get developed.
More interesting is later a dryline and warm front will come in to play, and that had potential to generate a pretty widespread significant severe weather episode the second half of the day.
As typical with cool season setups, instability is a mitigating factor. However, other dynamics in place may overcome limited instability. Amount of available sunshine, position and movement of the warm front and dryline, and small scale mesoscale storm interactions will be the mitigating factors for tornado potential today.
I suspect we shall see some tornado reports, although I don’t expect to see any long lived or very strong tornadoes. Probably quite a few high wind events as well. I don’t think large hail production will be abundant either, given the expected low top nature of storm cells.
My overall perception from a chasing standpoint is that this will be a typical cool season grunge chase. Lots of low level cloudiness and abundant rain to deal with, messing with visibilities and generally making chasing difficult. Given the distance to target area (initially Abilene, probably adjusted south/southeast as position of the triple point becomes clear), and the grunge potential, I am inclinced to sit this one out.
I am keeping an eye on it, and if my perception improves in the next few hours I am not beyond hitting the road, but it’s not likely at this point. Good luck to those that brave it. Maybe you can pull a rabbit out of the hat. May the Force be with you!
