I am intentionally ignoring the majority of the SPC forecast and going out on a limb today. SPC has forecast a moderate risk with a pretty decent risk for tornadoes along the Red River, where a warm front is expected to reside by this evening. No doubt there will be some severe weather there this evening. My concern is it being a mess, and if there are supercells them being embedded in said mess. I’m also not entirely convinced that the warm front is getting that far north. The entire area north of I20 is socked in by clouds even here just after noon.
Instead I am concentrating on an area I have had my eye on for a couple of days, and that would be the area in Texas from about Post to Sweetwater to Abilene to Aspermont. A small dryline bulge has been consistently depicted by the models today and now looks like that will occur in that area. It’s already piling up a lot of favorable parameters in the southern edge of that target, and clearing on the southern edge which should set up a nice baroclinic zone as well. I even see a cumulus field on satellite developing in the clearing.
The strength of the cap is the big holdback, but at this time I feel like it will break. In fact forecast models are breaking out a lone storm in that area this afternoon. I will be gearing up and heading out for Snyder here shortly, and adjust as needed from there. As always, I will be streaming the chase LIVE, right here on this website!
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