Nice setup in place for this afternoon/evening in eastern New Mexico, southwest Texas and the Texas South Plains. Not one of those highly advertised severe events, but rather one of those days that can produce some real surprises. While winds speed shear isn’t crazy, it’s sufficient, but even more importantly is the directional shear, which right now is analyzed to be greater than 90 degrees. We could see some great wind sculptures in supercells today!
Cloud cover is the fly in the ointment today, which is still covering the area here at noon. I am seeing some clearing west of Odessa along the Pecos River valley in southwest Texas, and I suspect storm will initiate first there along the edge of the mountains. If we don’t get some clearing further north soon, that could greatly inhibit our storm chances further north.