A powerful storm system is emerging out on to the plains that will no doubt bring severe weather for a good part of the eastern southern plains and points east.
Unseasonably high dewpoints are ramping up across Texas in advance of this system, and there are ample dynamics to generate a good deal of severe weather. The Storm Predicition center has already outlooked a good portion of the area in a Slight Risk with an area centered around southeast OK in a Moderate Risk. This will no doubt change by tomorrow.
This of course has many storm chasers who are anxious to see some good storms doing their best to pull tornadoes out of this. Frankly, I am just not seeing the huge tornado potential. Sure, there is ample shear, but any time I see winds at 850mb with any southwest component to them this early in the year I immediately think squall line.
Will there be tornadoes? Possibly. It’s possible that a storm or two might remain discrete long enough to produce, but even if it does it’s going to be hauling donkey. My gut feeling says it’s highly unlikely, and there will be a quick evoluton to a powerful squall line.
I feel more likely the cause for severe weather on Tuesday will widespread severe wind reports/damage, with some hail thrown in the mix. I expect there might be a few significant straight line wind episodes in the line that might get initially tagged with a tornado report because of damage, as often happens with strong squall lines.
That’s my gut feeling on the setup. As such, considering the distance and time of year as well, I have no plans to chase right now. I most definitely will give it a good look over in the morning and not 100% ruling out I might see something that intices me out the door. But I don’t think it’s likely.
Of course, there is always a chance I will bust this forecast. I guess we’ll know in about 24 hrs! 😉
Tags: February 9 2009, oklahoma, severe weather, texas, tornadoes
Well, looks like I underestimated the potential of that small window of opportunity for tornadic storms. Reference my post of the event. Squall line formation is getting going now. So I didn’t completely blow my forecast.